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prova2

di Redaziogioco

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Gioco Pulito

stories

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stories

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I rivoluzionari dello sport:

Bill James

L’inventore dell’algoritmo vincente

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o scorso anno, le dichiarazioni del dimissionario Walter Sabatini avevano attirato l’attenzione di molti. Nel corso della conferenza stampa d’addio, infatti, l’ex direttore sportivo della Roma aveva indicato come motivo principale della separazione un vero e proprio scontro di filosofietra lui e il resto della dirigenza. Ecco le sue parole:

Il presidente e i suoi collaboratori, giustamente, puntano su altre prerogative, stanno cercando un algoritmo vincente, io vivo dentro il mio istinto, non vedo il pallone come un oggetto sferoidale, per me la palla è qualcosa, vivo il mio calcio, un calcio che non può essere freddamente riportato alla statistica che descrive un giocatore.”

Dall’altra parte dell’oceano, invece, la mentalità a riguardo è leggermente diversa. Da anni ormai, è in corso una ricerca spasmodica di un metodo scientifico che aumenti le possibilità di una società sportiva di vincere.

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Senza entrare nel merito delle frasi di Sabatini, concentriamoci sul concetto di ricerca di un algoritmo vincente. A noi del vecchio mondo, infatti, risulta ancora indigesto il tentativo di applicazione di una scienza esatta se riferita ad un contesto sportivo. Di conseguenza la differenza tra vittoria e sconfitta è sì frutto di un’attenta pianificazione, ma è anche e soprattutto il risultato del susseguirsi di tanti fattori non calcolabili, che sono comunemente definiti intangibles.

Dall’altra parte dell’oceano, invece, la mentalità a riguardo è leggermente diversa. Da anni ormai, è in corso una ricerca spasmodica di un metodo scientifico che aumenti le possibilità di una società sportiva di vincere. Penso sia giusto specificare che, proprio perché si parla di aumentare le possibilità e non di garantire un successo, anche gli Americani sono consapevoli di non poter eliminare (o calcolare) tutte le intangibles. Lo sport, in fondo, altro non è che un microcosmo dell’esistenza e in quanto tale è impossibile arrivarne al nucleo più profondo.

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Billy Beane

La storia

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gioco pulito

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Billy Beane è il primo nome che ci viene in mente quando si parla di applicazione di metodi scientifici al mondo dello sport. Beane, infatti, è stato il primo Direttore Sportivo di una franchigia professionistica in MLB ad aver utilizzato la Sabermetrica (analisi empirica del Baseball) come unico criterio da tenere in considerazione nei processi di decision making. Visto l’enorme impatto che ha generato sullo sport americano e non solo, la storia di Beane è stata raccontata dal libro Moneyball, da cui è tratto il film L’arte di vincere.

Se considerassimo la Sabermetrica come una pistola, non sarebbe sbagliato affermare che Beane sia stato il primo a fare fuoco. Ma la domanda a cui vorrei rispondere è ancora più a monte: chi è l’inventore dell’arma?

Il colpevole nasce in Kansas nel 1949 e risponde al nome di Bill James.

Bill si innamora presto del baseball e col passare degli anni partorisce un pensiero rivoluzionario: introdurre nel mondo del baseball un approccio scientifico.

La scienza è come una lavagna pulita ed è proprio questo a renderla efficace,” dichiarò Jamesin un’intervista. “Tu puoi anche essere un laureando in fisica e pensare che Einstein abbia sbagliato, però se porti una tesi supportata da fatti concreti, la gente ti starà a sentire. Ed è esattamente quel che ho provato a fare io con il baseball: puoi essere un esperto quanto vuoi ma i fatti parlano chiaro.

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pesso e volentieri la normalità, prima di essere considerata tale, deve superare perplessità e pregiudizi. E per James non è stato diverso. Guardando una partita dei Dodgers ai tempi del liceo, Bill rimase confuso da un episodio: Wes Parker, prima base della squadra di Los Angeles, pur essendo un battitore con basse percentuali aveva salvato la partita grazie ad uno spettacolare salvataggio nel nono inning. Nonostante ciò, i Dodgers volevano a tutti i costi mettere Parker in panchina per far spazio ad un battitore migliore.

Perché la fase difensiva non dovrebbe essere considerata alla stregua di quella offensiva? Ecco la domanda che James non riusciva a togliersi dalla testa. Il testardo liceale allora scrisse una lettera di sette pagine a The Sporting News in cui spiegava animatamente il suo punto di vista. La lettera, naturalmente, non fu mai pubblicata.

Difatti, affinché i pensieri di James fossero finalmente ascoltati dovremo aspettare quattro anni passati all’University of Kansas, una breve parentesi nell’esercito e un posto di lavoro come guardiano notturno di un’azienda che produceva fagioli in scatola. Proprio durante quelle lunghe notti, James riordina i propri pensieri, cercando di rispondere ad alcune domande che nessun amante del baseball si era neanche mai posto.

Bill decide quindi di riprovarci, inviando nuovamente alcuni articoli a “The Sporting News”. Questa volta il giornale li accetta, innescando un effetto a cascata che in quel momento era totalmente imprevedibile. I pezzi vengono pubblicati poco dopo anche da Sports Illustrated e James scopre che molte più persone di quelle che pensava erano interessate alla sua filosofia.

Quando proponi una nuova idea è normale che tutti provino a cercare il perché non dovrebbe funzionare piuttosto che il contrario. La maggior parte delle persone vedono il mondo nel modo in cui è in quel dato momento. Se provi a suggerire un’alternativa ti diranno subito che non può funzionare. Ma io non mi sono curato di loro e mi sono continuato a chiedere: perché non dovrebbe esistere una scienza del baseball?

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A dirla tutta il Baseball è sempre stato uno sport di numeri. A differenza del passato però, James e altri studiosi si sono chiesti quali fossero i numeri che importavano davvero. Del resto, nonostante il processo di quantificazione dello sport più popolare d’America sia continuato imperterrito, il fattore umano resta comunque imprescindibile. E, paradossalmente, proprio l’inventore della Sabermetrica accompagna la sua mentalità puramente analitica ad una consapevolezza di scuola socratica:

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Non capirò mai il Baseball. Non arriverò mai a capire neanche l’1% di quello che vorrei. Quello che facciamo con il nostro lavoro è paragonabile ad attaccare una montagna di ignoranza (nel senso vero e proprio di ignorare, ndr) con uno spazzolino e un dentifricio usato. Le cose che non sappiamo sono infinite.

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Non capirò mai il Baseball. Non arriverò mai a capire neanche l’1% di quello che vorrei. Quello che facciamo con il nostro lavoro è paragonabile ad attaccare una montagna di ignoranza (nel senso vero e proprio di ignorare, ndr) con uno spazzolino e un dentifricio usato. Le cose che non sappiamo sono infinite.

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Pur non mettendo in dubbio la sincerità delle parole di Bill, non si può negare che grazie all’utilizzo delle statistiche analitiche adesso il nostro livello di comprensione del Baseball sia molto più accurato rispetto a prima. Di orizzonti da scoprire ce ne saranno sempre per carità, ma nel mondo dello sport la figura di James è paragonabile a quella di Cristoforo Colombo. L’impatto generato dal nativo del Kansas è stato tanto straordinario che una rivista autorevole come il Time nel 2006 lo ha inserito tra le cento persone più influenti al mondo.

Non accontentandosi di aver cambiato l’approccio verso il Baseball da outsider, James è riuscito a dare il suo contributo pure da insider. Nel 2003, infatti, il padre della sabermetrica è stato assunto niente meno che dai Boston Red Sox, per riportare in Massachusetts un titolo che mancava dal 1918. Risultato? Dal 2003 ad oggi i Red Sox hanno conquistato tre titoli, di cui il primo proprio nel 2004. Va bene credere alle coincidenze…ma così è troppo.

Ogni ambito della nostra società può contare su pionieri eccellenti, su persone che si sono spinte oltre i confini di ciò che sembrava logico in un preciso momento storico. E il mondo dello sport moderno non fa eccezione. A partire da Pierre de Coubertin, colui che ha riportato in auge in concetto di Olimpiade nel 1896, sono pochi i personaggi che hanno influito prepotentemente sul mondo dello sport come Bill James. Che vi piaccia o meno, infatti, lo sport è orientato sempre più verso l’oggettivizzazione, verso un approccio asetticamente scientifico a discapito del romanticismo. E gran parte dei meriti di questa evoluzione vanno attribuiti a Bill James, padre della sabermetrica.

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Pur non mettendo in dubbio la sincerità delle parole di Bill, non si può negare che grazie all’utilizzo delle statistiche analitiche adesso il nostro livello di comprensione del Baseball sia molto più accurato rispetto a prima. Di orizzonti da scoprire ce ne saranno sempre per carità, ma nel mondo dello sport la figura di James è paragonabile a quella di Cristoforo Colombo. L’impatto generato dal nativo del Kansas è stato tanto straordinario che una rivista autorevole come il Time nel 2006 lo ha inserito tra le cento persone più influenti al mondo.

Non accontentandosi di aver cambiato l’approccio verso il Baseball da outsider, James è riuscito a dare il suo contributo pure da insider. Nel 2003, infatti, il padre della sabermetrica è stato assunto niente meno che dai Boston Red Sox, per riportare in Massachusetts un titolo che mancava dal 1918. Risultato? Dal 2003 ad oggi i Red Sox hanno conquistato tre titoli, di cui il primo proprio nel 2004. Va bene credere alle coincidenze…ma così è troppo.

Ogni ambito della nostra società può contare su pionieri eccellenti, su persone che si sono spinte oltre i confini di ciò che sembrava logico in un preciso momento storico. E il mondo dello sport moderno non fa eccezione. A partire da Pierre de Coubertin, colui che ha riportato in auge in concetto di Olimpiade nel 1896, sono pochi i personaggi che hanno influito prepotentemente sul mondo dello sport come Bill James. Che vi piaccia o meno, infatti, lo sport è orientato sempre più verso l’oggettivizzazione, verso un approccio asetticamente scientifico a discapito del romanticismo. E gran parte dei meriti di questa evoluzione vanno attribuiti a Bill James, padre della sabermetrica.

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